Scientists warn that by 2070, record temperatures and rainfall could become more common, and warn that global warming is accelerating faster than predicted
Nir Hasson Jul 9, 2025
Israel could see extreme heatwaves with temperatures hitting 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit) or higher in many regions, well before the end of the century, the Israel Meteorological Service warned in a new report, citing the country’s accelerating warming trend.
By 2070, such extreme temperature events are projected to increase in frequency, occurring once every two years.
The report was commissioned following a 2018 government decision and aims to help various authorities prepare for the climate change anticipated in Israel.
It relies on climate models that incorporate historical data alongside projections of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere through the end of the 21st century. These projections are based on the more severe scenario widely accepted by scientists.
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According to the report, during extreme heatwaves, temperatures in the Hula Valley in northern Israel are expected to soar to a dangerous 57.5 degrees Celsius (135.5 degrees Fahrenheit). In the coastal plain, heatwaves of 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit) or higher are expected to occur starting from the middle of the century.
Average expected temperatures across Israel, by year.Credit: Israel Meteorological Service report, July 2025
In Jerusalem, heatwave temperatures are forecast to reach 44–47 degrees Celsius (111–117 degrees Fahrenheit).
According to the report, the rate of warming will vary across Israel’s geographic regions. In the mountains and inland areas, temperatures are projected to rise by 4.5 to 5 degrees Celsius (8-9 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial averages by the end of the century.
In contrast, the coastal plain and lowlands are expected to experience a rise of 3 to 3.5 degrees Celsius (5.4 to 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit).
This warming trend is likely to drive increases in both minimum and maximum temperatures nationwide, along with a sharp rise in the intensity of extreme rainfall, the frequency of heatwaves, droughts and floods.
This is the most comprehensive climate report ever produced in Israel and the first to utilize high-resolution modeling, which enables a more detailed analysis of impacts on smaller geographic areas. Previously, climate forecasts relied on global or regional models that examined areas of 30 to 100 square kilometers (approximately 12 to 38 square miles).
The new report models were run on grids as small as 2.5 square kilometers (approximately 1 square mile).
“This is the first time it has been possible to examine the differences between Tel Aviv and Petah Tikva, and between the Golan Heights and the Hula Valley,” said Haaretz Dr. Amir Givati, director general of the Israel Meteorological Service.
The report predicts more sudden, heavy downpours that could trigger floods and overwhelm drainage systems due to an increase in rainfall intensity, yet an overall decrease in rainfall. The greatest flood risk is concentrated in the coastal plain and lowlands, where hourly and daily rainfall during extreme events is expected to rise by 40 to 50 percent.
“This increase,” the report says, “is explained by warmer air’s ability to hold more water vapor and to intensify atmospheric instability – conditions that promote heavy, short bursts of rainfall.”
The report asserts extreme rainfall events will occur more frequently over shorter periods, “putting drainage infrastructure under greater strain and requiring renewed flood risk management, especially along the coast.”
Severe climate forecasts worldwide have become more widely accepted, says Givati, due to the continued rise in greenhouse gas concentrations. He adds that climate models often underestimate actual trends and have so far struggled to accurately predict the pace and intensity of warming.
“People need to realize that warming is exceeding what models forecasted ten years ago,” he says. “That is why our professional recommendation is to prepare for the more severe scenario.”