Abdul Malik, Georgiy Stenchikov, Suleiman Mostamandi, Sagar Parajuli, Jos Lelieveld, George Zittis, Muhammad Sheraz Ahsan, Luqman Atique, Muhammad Usman

First published: 21 November 2024

note: open access

https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041625

Abstract

The present study assesses the climate of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) in detail, focusing on the historical and future warming trends in the region. The assessment incorporates data from observations, reanalyses, and statistically downscaled climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phases 5 and 6. Since the pre-industrial era, the observed average climate in the MENA has warmed by 1.5°C and is on the brink of exceeding 2°C. The reanalysis data suggest that the regional warming over some MENA sub-regions is three times faster than the global average. By the end of the 21st century, the Arabian Peninsula is projected to warm to 2.6°C ± 0.57°C and 7.6°C ± 1.53°C under low and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, respectively. Distinct warming hotspots emerge over the Arabian Peninsula and Algeria in summer and over Mauritania in West Africa and the Elburz Mountains in Iran in winter. The summer hotspot over the Arabian Peninsula has already warmed by more than 2°C and can potentially warm to approximately 9°C under the high-emission scenario. As global warming progresses to 1.5, 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0°C, the average temperature over the MENA land is projected to increase by 2.3°C ± 0.18°C, 3.0°C ± 0.22°C, 4.6°C ± 0.26°C, and 6.1°C ± 0.31°C, respectively. The 1.5, 2.0, 3.0, and 4.0°C warming levels over the MENA are expected to predate those of the global mean by two or three decades. Natural climate fluctuations also significantly influence the region’s warming, contributing to temperature extremes.

Key Points

  • Middle East and North Africa are warming much faster than the global average, with notable hotspots in the Arabian Peninsula and Algeria
  • Middle East and North Africa will reach 1.5, 2, 3, and 4°C warming levels two to three decades earlier than the global average
  • By 2100, high emissions could warm parts of the Arabian Peninsula by 9°C, posing severe environmental and societal challenges

Plain Language Summary

Warming of the Earth’s climate due to anthropogenic influences is expected to continue in the future. The present study examines in detail the actual and projected temperature changes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region from 1850 to the end of this century. Using the most recently available data and models, we show that the region, notably the Arabian Peninsula, is warming significantly faster than the rest of the world. The high warming rate in the central part of the Arabian Peninsula is comparable to that in the Arctic and is two to three times the global average. This finding is concerning because the Arabian Peninsula is already one of the hottest locations on Earth. Additional warming hotspots are Algeria, Mauritania, and the Elburz Mountains in Iran. Rapid warming in the MENA will considerably affect the population and may compromise habitability.

link to full article, open access:

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024JD041625